According to the study’s lead author, the research indicates that, in highly technology-intensive contexts, the movement of people increases companies’ access to knowledge, networks, and adaptability (image: geralt/Pixabay)

Published on 07/13/2026

By Roseli Andrion  |  Agência FAPESP – For decades, Brazilian researchers and entrepreneurs have traveled abroad in search of education and experience. What was once seen as merely personal gain now takes on a new dimension. A study by the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) shows that this “brain circulation” is crucial for technology startups to survive and thrive in the state of São Paulo.

Supported by FAPESP, the results of the study were published in December in the Journal of Technology Transfer.

“Mobility acts as a systemic mechanism. It facilitates the circulation of knowledge and helps companies better adapt to competition. But that impact varies according to the company’s level of technological intensity,” explains Angélica Pigola, a postdoctoral researcher at UNICAMP’s School of Applied Sciences and the first author of the study. The study was conducted in partnership with researchers Bruno Fischer and Gustavo Salati. 

To reach this conclusion, the team mapped the trajectories of over 400 entrepreneurs whose projects received support from FAPESP’s Innovative Research in Small Businesses Program (PIPE) between 2015 and 2020.

The researchers cross-referenced information on where these professionals studied, where they worked, and what international certifications they earned. With this data, they created a metric called “mobility.” This metric takes into account the distance between the environments in which the entrepreneur lived, such as changes in institutions, regions, educational levels, and contacts outside the “bubble” where the business was founded.

They then used a machine learning algorithm to cross-reference the mobility data with the technological intensity level of the companies they founded (high, medium, or low) to see which businesses stood the test of time.

The choice of survival as an indicator was no accident. “We know the company exists, but we don’t have precise data on revenue, profit, or growth,” he explains. “Since standardized and comparable financial data is generally more readily available for publicly traded companies, it limits our ability to measure the actual impact on privately held companies. That’s why survival became the indicator for linking business success to the founder’s journey.”

The hypothesis was that high-tech companies, which require skilled leadership and access to complex markets, would benefit the most from their founders’ global experience. “In these cases, mobility is a strategic asset. Studying abroad or moving through different ecosystems broadens one’s repertoire and facilitates dialogue during internationalization processes,” says the researcher.

The data confirmed this suspicion: mobility greatly aids survival, especially in medium- and high-tech sectors, where a company’s location and the support it receives make all the difference.

“The study doesn’t establish deterministic relationships or percentages [regarding increased survival rates due to founders’ international mobility]. Instead, it suggests that in highly technology-intensive contexts, movement expands access to knowledge, networks, and the ability to adapt,” Pigola notes.

Tailored public policies

The findings of this study can serve as a guide for smarter public policies. According to Pigola, using robust data reduces biases and makes decision-making more transparent. “It makes no sense to create a generic national mobility policy and expect it to address the needs of a region in the interior of São Paulo,” he explains. “We need to understand local particularities. With solid regional data, we could design much more effective policies.”

The study doesn’t stop there. Now, the team is working with the theory of complex adaptive systems, viewing entrepreneurship ecosystems as unique configurations that change depending on the location and history of each business. “We want to identify patterns, but without falling into the illusion that there’s a magic formula,” says Pigola. “It’s a long-term effort that requires respect for the complexity of each context.”

For her, the message is clear: Brazil needs to view international mobility as a strategic investment, not a cost. “We need to use the data to improve our environment,” she concludes. In a country that still struggles to develop and connect talent, this study emphasizes that investing in experiences outside of Brazil is just as important as investing in a startup.

The challenge of business failure

According to data from SEBRAE (the Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service), 29% of Brazilian companies close before reaching their fifth anniversary. The problem is even greater for tech startups. Although Brazil had approximately 20,000 active startups in 2023, according to the Brazilian Association of Startups (ABStartups), the failure rate remains high, particularly among those unable to scale or break into international markets. Studies by innovation ecosystem observatories, such as the SEBRAE Startups Observatory, and industry associations indicate that the failure rate among high-tech ventures may exceed 50% during this period. This reflects the significant challenges business models face when they require long research and maturation cycles before scaling up.

The language barrier is just the tip of the iceberg. “Without understanding the country you want to reach or the people you’ll be dealing with, it’s almost impossible to internationalize a business,” says Pigola. “English is the foundation, but international experience offers something more. It breaks down cultural barriers and exposes entrepreneurs to other ways of solving problems.”

A paradox emerges here: while Brazilians face structural obstacles, such as difficulty securing funding to study abroad, this exchange is natural in developed countries. “Those born in India or England have English as their national language or learn it from an early age,” the researcher notes. “They have many doors open to them. In Brazil, that’s still a difficult journey.”

A lack of data

The analysis used public data and authorized institutional databases in an aggregated form that respected the confidentiality of those involved.

Pigola points out that although Brazil has many relevant databases, they rarely share information, are often outdated, and are difficult to access. This hinders scientific progress and results in public policies being made without sufficient information. “Concrete indicators help reduce decisions based on guesswork,” she states.

The researcher concludes that this lack of data is a bottleneck that weakens the Brazilian ecosystem and hinders the work of those trying to understand how innovation and entrepreneurship function in the country.

The article “Mapping entrepreneurial mobility: a machine learning perspective on firm survival and ecosystem dynamics” can be read at link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10961-025-10305-8. 

 

Source: https://agencia.fapesp.br/58653