The point was stressed by Jean Ometto, a senior researcher at Brazil’s National Space Research Institute (INPE) and a Lead Author of the latest installment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, during a webinar held by FAPESP. Four other Brazilian researchers who contributed to the document also took part in the event (image: screenshot of webinar)
Published on 03/28/2022
By José Tadeu Arantes | Agência FAPESP – Almost half the population of the world – between 42% and 46% of its human inhabitants – are already highly vulnerable to climate change. The degree of vulnerability correlates with gender, race and income. In Central and South America, vulnerability is increased by factors such as social inequality, poverty, and land-use changes, mainly associated with deforestation. Many extreme events, such as flooding, drought, rising sea levels, coastal erosion or acidification of oceans and lakes, are already affecting the region and set to become even more intense.
These were the key points made by Jean Ometto, a senior researcher at Brazil’s National Space Research Institute (INPE) and a member of the steering committee for the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change (RPGCC), during a webinar held on March 3 to discuss the latest installment of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – produced by the Working Group II (WGII), the report was issued on February 28.
The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide governments with scientific information they can use to develop climate policies. It currently has 195 member countries, including Brazil. Scientists from all over the world contribute to its work on a voluntary basis as authors, collaborators and reviewers. They are organized into three independent working groups: WGI deals with the physical science basis of climate change and issued its latest report in August 2021; WGII deals with the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change, as expressed in AR6’s title; and WGIII, which focuses on climate change mitigation and is due to publish its next report in May.
Human activity is estimated to have caused a rise of about 1 °C in the average temperature of the planet compared with the pre-industrial era. “If the global temperature exceeds the pre-industrial average by 1.5 °C, even for only a few decades, returning thereafter to a lower level, the damage to several natural and social systems will be irreversible,” Ometto said, stressing that the window of opportunity for consistent action is closing. He was a Lead Author for Chapter 12 of the report, on Central and South America, and for Cross-Chapter Paper 7, on Tropical Forests.
Four other scientists who contributed to WGII/AR6 as authors took part in the webinar. One was Mariana Vale, a professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), a Lead Author for Chapter 12, and Cross-Chapter Paper Lead on Biodiversity Hotspots (CCP1).
An important aspect of the report, Vale stressed, is that it understands the global system as an integration of the climate system proper with natural and human systems. “Terrestrial, marine and freshwater natural systems not only are affected by climate but also affect it. They can attenuate climate change by capturing carbon from the atmosphere, for example. At the same time, they’re impacted by human systems, particularly via environmental degradation, while also offering human systems a key avenue to adaptation, which we call ecosystem-based adaptation,” she said.
Based on a much more comprehensive survey of the data than ever before, the new report shows that the extent and intensity of the impacts of climate change exceed those estimated in previous assessments. Irreversible change to land, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems has already happened.
An important point highlighted by Vale was the changing distribution of natural species as they move away from areas affected by warming to cooler regions. “About half of the species assessed have changed their distribution by moving toward the poles or to higher altitudes. Hundreds of species have lost local populations owing to extremely high temperatures,” she said.
“The evidence is growing that ecosystem degradation or destruction also increases the vulnerability of humans, especially in indigenous and traditional communities. Risk mitigation will be more effective if, besides cutting greenhouse gas emissions, we increase the capacity of natural ecosystems to store carbon. This can be done by reducing deforestation and restoring degraded ecosystems so that they become natural carbon sinks again.”
The next speaker was Patrícia Pinho, Deputy Science Director at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM) and a Lead Author of Chapter 8 on Poverty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development. Her presentation focused on the social dimension of the climate crisis.
“A novel aspect covered by the report has to do with climate justice,” she said. “Historically speaking, the countries of the global North have contributed most to the climate crisis. However, its worst effects have been felt in the South, including Brazil, and above all by the poorest and most marginalized people, including indigenous and traditional communities.”
According to the report, the impacts of climate change and social inequality exacerbate each other. “It’s impossible to discuss climate change or propose effective forms of adaptation without addressing the issue of socio-economic development,” Pinho argued. “When we think about strategies for resilience or adaptation, we need to consider the different starting points of each social group. There’s no such thing as a single solution for all. The number of deaths caused by storms, floods or droughts is 15 times higher in highly vulnerable countries than less vulnerable countries.”
Without strong climate change adaptation measures, the number of people living in conditions of extreme poverty is projected to rise by 122 million between now and 2030.
This remark served as a bridge to the next presentation, which focused on urban adaptation, a key question in light of the globally accelerating rate of urbanization, with regional variations.
The topic was addressed by Maria Fernanda Lemos, a professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-RJ) and a Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 12. “In Africa, the urban population is growing rapidly, especially in small and medium towns, while mega-cities are expanding in Asia. The world’s largest cities will be in Asia in a few years’ time,” she said.
Cities are systems, Lemos went on, and multiple variables must be considered if adaptation strategies are to be genuinely effective. “One of the main barriers is the growth of poverty and inequality. This is associated with lack of infrastructure and basic services, settlements in high-risk areas, low-quality housing, and informal jobs. All these problems require urgent attention and action. Important initiatives are under way in Central and South America to reduce the housing deficit, but they aim mostly to reduce risk rather than bring about changes that would build a future-ready environment,” she said.
“There’s a great deal of investment in traditional large-scale engineering projects and very little to reduce precariousness and informality. Seeing cities as systems means having to design inclusive projects for the long term, more efficient governance systems, a regulatory framework that directs public and private action to target adaptation, and monitoring and tracking systems.”
Another important item of the report Lemos highlighted was the growth of efforts to use ecosystem-based solutions in cities as well, especially in water management. “There are expectations that combining traditional engineering projects with nature-based solutions can make water management more efficient,” she said.
Mobility and transportation are critical. “When the transportation system collapses owing to floods, people are trapped wherever they may be. Adapting transportation systems so that they can withstand extreme situations is therefore vital. We have practically no evidence that this kind of action is being taken. It’s a yawning gap,” she said.
Building the future from a realistic perspective that can also be optimistic was the focus for the last presentation in the webinar, delivered by Maria Silvia Muylaert Araújo, an architect and urban planning expert employed by the Rio de Janeiro State Housing Corporation (CEHAB-RJ). She was a Lead Author of Chapter 18 on Climate-Resilient Development Pathways and contributed to the Global to Regional Atlas.
“The definition of resilience adopted by WGII is ‘the capacity of interconnected social, economic and ecological systems to cope with a hazardous event, trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure. Resilience is a positive attribute when it maintains capacity for adaptation, learning and/or transformation’,” she explained.
This presupposes integration of the mitigation and adaptation agendas. “Seeking evidence of resilience in projects large and small, we investigated the possible development pathways that are more or less sustainable on five main systems, which consist of energy; urban and infrastructure; land, ocean and ecosystems; industrial; and social system,” she said.
Sustainability is associated with profound social change, drastically reducing emissions so as to keep global warming well below 2 °C and achieve futures that are desirable and viable for the wellbeing of all.
“The window is narrowing,” Araújo said. Nevertheless, she noted, the report makes substantial progress by emphasizing ecosystem-based adaptation measures and recognition of traditional knowledge as effective ways and means of addressing climate change. “A major advance in the report is inclusion of the idea of learning from nature and the local knowledge built up by indigenous communities, recognizing this science, which is often oral, as a system that integrates cultural practices, traditions, wisdom and ways of knowing the world that furnish information, observations and precise useful solutions for coping with climate change,” she said.
Araújo also described some of the ongoing large-scale climate-resilient development projects. One is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), involving infrastructure complexes from gas pipelines and railroads to industrial parks and urban rehabilitation in more than 120 countries with an aggregate GDP of USD 21 trillion and 4.4 billion people.
Another type of climate-resilient project can be called Green Walls, she added, citing Africa’s Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative, a 15 km wide and 8,000 km long belt of land-use change and agroforestry projects designed to combat land degradation, desertification and drought across the southern edge of the Sahara.
“These proposals have advantages and drawbacks that need to be better understood and evaluated,” she said.
The webinar to diffuse WGII’s contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report was moderated by physicist Paulo Artaxo, a member of the IPCC and of the RPGCC’s steering committee.
The online event was opened by FAPESP President Marco Antonio Zago, who said the IPCC’s most important feature is its “strict adherence to science”, adding that “the contributions of its hundreds of scientists are very different from political and ideological opinions”.
Zago also stressed that FAPESP has allocated some BRL 100 million to date in research funding for projects on the links between variables resulting from human activity and natural phenomena. More than 740 projects relating to climate change in all disciplines have been funded so far.
A recording of the complete webinar can be watched at: www.youtube.com/watch?v=pusHlS0wSEA.
Source: https://agencia.fapesp.br/38257
